Since the second half of this year, due to the overlapping of multiple factors at home and abroad, some PV companies have been greatly affected, and the capital market has been relatively strong. As the stock prices of many PV listed companies have fallen sharply, there have been some discussions in the society about the development prospects of China's PV industry. Most of them are the general public who want to understand the real situation of China's PV industry, but there are also a small number of people trying to confuse the audience and “splashing dirty water” into the Chinese PV industry.
China's PV, which accounts for more than 70% of the global market share, is the “strategic emerging industry” that we hope for. It is also the “pseudo-tech” supported by subsidies. We speak with facts.
1. New energy, represented by photovoltaics and wind power, is leading the way in energy transformation.
The core of the third industrial revolution we are currently welcoming is the major changes in human production, life and social economy caused by the combination of energy Internet and renewable energy. With the unsustainable exposure of fossil energy, it is a general trend to replace fossil energy with renewable energy. Developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan, as well as emerging countries such as India and Mexico, attach great importance to the development of renewable energy, and have introduced a series of support policies and targets. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the number of national data for the development of renewable energy policy targets in 2016 has reached 176. In 2017, the global renewable energy power generation capacity increased by 167 GW, an increase of 8.3%, reaching 2,179 GW.
With the continuous expansion of photovoltaic power generation and the rapid decline of electricity costs, photovoltaic power generation has become an important force in the current energy transformation. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2017, the global installed capacity of new PV exceeded 102GW, far exceeding other power, accounting for 37.7% of all new power installations, which is more than twice the total of fossil fuels and nuclear power. According to the recently released "Renewable Energy 2018" by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total installed capacity of photovoltaics will increase by nearly 600GW in the next five years, exceeding the sum of all other renewable energy sources. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the average electricity cost (LCOE) of photovoltaic power generation in 2017 has fallen by 73% since 2010, and even Mexico has reported a low price of 1.77 cents/kWh. IRENA predicts that the cost of photovoltaic power generation will be reduced by half by 2020, and the price of renewable energy will be reduced to a level that can compete with traditional power.
Second, China's photovoltaic enterprises lead the global development of photovoltaics
China is recognized as a global leader in the world's photovoltaic industry. Adnan Amin, Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency, has praised China for “one-third of the world's new solar installations and is leading the world in this regard”.
In international competition, as early as 2010, China's photovoltaic industry was suppressed by the US-Europe double trade. However, the Chinese PV industry has become stronger and stronger in the struggle, and the global market share has increased from 40% in 2010 to nearly 70% in 2017. In McKinsey's report on the comparison of industrial advantages between China and the United States, PV is the only industry in China that is fully ahead of the US and is rated as a perfect score. Therefore, in 2013, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry” (Guo Fa  No. 24), which positioned the photovoltaic industry as “a strategic emerging industry with international competitive advantages in China”.
In terms of industrial scale, China's new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has been the world's number one for five consecutive years, and its cumulative installed capacity ranks first in the world for three consecutive years. As of the end of 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the country reached 130 million kilowatts. Polysilicon has been the world's No. 1 producer for seven consecutive years, and its components have ranked first in global production for 11 consecutive years. In 2017, China's production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips and modules accounted for 54.8%, 87.2%, 69% and 71.1% of the world's total, respectively.
In terms of enterprise development, China's photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises are among the highest in the world. In 2017, the number of PV manufacturing enterprises in China's top 10 global production capacity was 6 polysilicon, 10 silicon wafers, 8 battery cells, and 8 components, and the enterprises with the highest output in the world are all in China.
In terms of technology research and development, China's industrialization technology level has always led the world. Many leading companies in the industry are working with world-renowned universities and research institutes in the photovoltaic field, such as Oxford University, Yale University, Singapore Solar Energy Research Institute, Australian National University, etc. Cooperative research and development. From 2014 to 2017, solar cells developed by companies such as Trina Solar, Jingke, and Longji have set new world records for nine consecutive times. By the end of 2017, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of high-efficiency single and polycrystalline batteries in China has reached 21.3% and 19.2%, respectively.
In terms of the application market, the application of new products in the photovoltaic power generation leading base in China has led the global trend. From the third batch of leading base declarations, the component conversion efficiency has exceeded the entry threshold of single/polysilicon components by 17.8%/17%, and advanced system technologies such as multi-main gate, half-chip, double-sided, and shingle, as well as tracking systems. The scope of application is gradually expanding. At the same time, the implementation of the front-runner project also explored various photovoltaic + new formats such as “photovoltaic + agriculture”, “photovoltaic + fishery”, “photovoltaic + coal mine subsidence zone management”, photovoltaic building integration, etc., and realized photovoltaic and other industries. The combined effect of integration development.
Based on the overall advantages of China's photovoltaic industry, research and research, photovoltaic system prices and component prices have been reduced by 90% in the past decade, forming a comprehensive leading position for foreign companies. For this reason, China's photovoltaic industry can join the Shenzhou spacecraft, domestic large aircraft, high-speed rail and other industries to the "19th National Congress" stamp souvenir cover, becoming the business card of China's new era.
Third, China's photovoltaics have obvious social and economic benefits to China.
In terms of energy saving and emission reduction benefits: China, as the world's largest PV market, has made great contributions to the global response to climate change and to our blue sky defense war. By the end of 2017, the cumulative power generation of photovoltaic power generation in China reached 261.4 billion kWh, and the accumulated standard coal savings were 81.818 million tons, with a cumulative reduction of carbon emissions of 210 million tons, equivalent to planting 480 million trees.
In terms of economic benefits: In 2017, the photovoltaic industry drove about 409.1 billion yuan of investment related to downstream power stations, and paid various taxes and fees of about 170.8 billion yuan. The accumulated export revenue was 130 billion US dollars, and the cumulative power generation reached 261.4 billion kilowatt hours. 209.1 billion yuan (average 0.8 yuan / kWh). The number of PV-related enterprises exceeds 2,000, driving more than 2 million people.
In terms of social benefits: First, to help revitalize the rural strategy. By the end of 2017, China's household PV installations have exceeded 500,000. According to the average installation of 10 kilowatts per household, each household has an annual increase of nearly 7,000-8,000 yuan. According to statistics, in 2013-2015, PV will be energized for 1.45 million people without electricity, and every 3,460 yuan of independent PV investment can solve one person's electricity consumption, which is 25.8% of the investment grid. The second is to achieve accurate poverty alleviation. According to the statistics of the State Council Office of Poverty Alleviation, as of the end of 2017, a total of 25 provinces and 940 counties across the country have carried out the construction of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects, with a total scale of 10.11 million kilowatts and assistance to about 10,000 poor households with a population of 1.46 million.
Therefore, it is precisely because of these great achievements of China's photovoltaic industry that the country attaches great importance to it and has introduced a series of laws and regulations to solve the problems of photovoltaic development, including consumption and non-technical costs, and support the better development of the photovoltaic industry.
Fourth, China's photovoltaic industry to solve problems with the development of
China's photovoltaic development to date, while achieving brilliant achievements, but also inevitably encountered some problems with other industrial industries, such as structural imbalances in production, some companies are not good bankruptcy restructuring. But this is the normal performance of the socialist market economy. The production capacity is greater than the demand. If the supply exceeds demand, the price will continue to drop. If a number of enterprises invest in photovoltaics, there will be a hundred schools of contending for a hundred flowers, and the survival of the fittest will be achieved. It is not surprising that some enterprises and even the leading bankruptcy reorganization itself are the objective manifestations of the role of the market economy. We should bear in mind that the core of the report of the 19th National Congress "makes the market play a decisive role in resource allocation", let the market as the main body, let the people as the main body, and let the customers as the main body instead of excessive intervention. The photovoltaic industry is a relatively high-income industry. As with other private economies, many “glass doors”, “spring doors” and “revolving doors” have been encountered in policy implementation, which has also caused some entrepreneurs’ anxiety. "We unswervingly develop the public sector of the economy and unswervingly encourage, support, guide and protect the development of the private economy." General Secretary Xi Jinping once again reiterated the "two unshakable" major policies, and made a lot of effort. .
China's photovoltaic industry is not only a representative industry in China's manufacturing industry, but also a microcosm of China's private economy. Adhere to the "two unwavering", we must unswervingly support the development of private economy like China's photovoltaic industry. To protect the hard-won development achievements of private enterprises and promote the development of the private economy, it is necessary to highlight the problem-oriented, focus on solving practical problems, create a better business environment for private enterprises, and let private enterprises go light in battle to develop in the fierce market competition. grow. It is believed that with the support of all parties, China's PV entrepreneurs will firmly develop their confidence, further promote entrepreneurship and craftsmanship, seize the main business, work hard, improve their innovation ability, make more first-class products, and develop more first-class products. enterprise.